2025 U.S. Open Long Shot Betting: Take This Golfer at 400-1 to Win at Oakmont

If you have already read my betting preview for this week’s U.S. Open, you know that I’m largely only betting Scottie Scheffler in the outright winner market at Oakmont. Since I published that article, I have had many people message me asking if there was a complete unknown dark horse that I’d like to bet to be in contention this week, who would it be?

Because I’m a man of the people, I’ve complied and dug deeper into the numbers to find a golfer at extremely long odds who I think may shock some people with his play this week. The golfer I have found, whom I’ve added to my list of bets for this week, is the Argentine Emiliano Grillo.

U.S. Open long shot bet

I'm going to sprinkle a little bit on Grillo to win this week at 400-1, but there are plenty of options to bet on him if you don't want to get crazy and bet on his outright price.

Emiliano Grillo odds

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• To Win: +40000
• Top 5: +3000
• Top 10: +1200
• Top 20: +450
• Top 30: +260
• Top 40: +140
• Make the cut: +105

Emiliano Grillo is a two-time winner on the PGA Tour, and he has had five top 20 finishes in majors throughout his career. He hasn’t had his best stuff in 2025 but is quietly in some solid form heading into this week, finishing T24 or better in three straight starts.

At last week’s RBC Canadian Open, Grillo gained +2.37 strokes per round with his approach play, the second-best mark of the entire field.

Most importantly, the stat of his that stuck out the most to me is that he ranks fifth on the PGA Tour in 3-putt avoidance, recording just 13 total three-putts in 900 holes played this season. Avoiding three putts is a huge advantage at Oakmont, where the greens are going to be some of the toughest that golfers will putt on all season. If he’s able to continue to avoid three-putts at this rate, he’s going to have an advantage on the rest of the field.

Will he win? Almost certainly not, but if you're looking for a bet on a top 20, top 30, top 40 or a make-the-cut play at plus-money, Grillo is an intriguing option.

I’ve personally sprinkled on him to win, then placed a one-unit bet on him to finish in the top 20 and a two-unit bet on him to make the cut.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!