Peter's Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Valkyries vs. Sparks, Kelsey Plum)

Monday’s WNBA action features a standalone game between the Los Angeles Sparks and Golden State Valkyries – the third meeting of the season between these squads.

Both teams are coming off wins, as the Sparks knocked off the Dallas Wings on Friday for their first Commissioner's Cup win of the 2025 season. Meanwhile, the Valkyries improved to 1-2 in Commissioner’s Cup play with a blowout win at home over the Las Vegas Aces on Saturday.

In the first two meetings between these squads in 2025 (they split the matchups), the road team won both times. Does that continue on Monday?

Los Angeles is set as a favorite at home, but it remains without star forward Cameron Brink (torn ACL recovery).

Here’s a breakdown of my best bets for Monday’s lone matchup in the W. 

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2025 season record: 11-15 (-3.16 units)
• OVERALL (since 2024 season): 95-89 (+1.29 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Kelsey Plum OVER 20.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit
• Golden State Valkyries +6 (-110) vs. Los Angeles Sparks – 0.5 unit

Kelsey Plum OVER 20.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit

This season, Plum has seven games with 18 or more shot attempts (out of nine games), giving her a terrific floor when it comes to clearing this prop.

The Sparks guard is averaging 21.6 points per game in the 2025 season, and while she’s failed to clear this line in three straight games, she did have 37 against this Valkyries team in her season opener. 

Golden State is also fourth in the WNBA in pace, and a few extra possessions certainly will help Plum go over this line. Even with Rickea Jackson back, the Sparks are heavily reliant on Plum’s scoring to win.

If she has a decent day efficiency wise, she should easily clear this prop on Monday. 

Golden State Valkyries +6 (-110) vs. Los Angeles Sparks – 0.5 unit

Even though the Valkyries are just 3-5, they are 5-3 against the spread and have kept games close on several occasions as a road underdog.

Golden State ranks just behind the Sparks in net rating this season, and it has a top-six defensive rating in the WNBA.

The big concern for the Valkyries will be on the offensive end, as they are just 12th out of 13 teams in offensive rating. Despite that, I think they can cover against a Sparks team that is just 1-3 against the spread at home. 

Los Angeles has not defended at a high level with Brink out, ranking 10th in the W in defensive rating. The Sparks also have struggled against better competition, as two of their three wins have come against the Wings and Sky – the two of the three worst teams in the WNBA so far in 2025. 

Golden State should be able to hang around in the third meeting between these squads.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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