Fantasy Football Draft Or Pass: Will Tyreek Hill Return To Elite Fantasy Status?

Tyreek Hill has long been a fantasy football superstar between his time in Kansas City and Miami. That made it even more shocking when he failed to produce at a high level this past season. The veteran fell short of the 1,000-yard receiving mark for the first time since 2019 when he missed four games, and his 12.8 point-per-game average was a career worst.

Part of his statistical decline had to do with the absence of Tua Tagovailoa, who missed six games due to injury. However, Hill wasn’t his same statistical self even when Tua was under center … he averaged just 63.1 yards and scored six touchdowns over those 11 contests. If we projected his stats with Tagovailoa over a 17-game schedule, Hill would have finished with 87 catches, 1,073 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. That’s around 250 points.

That’s not a terrible total, but it’s 126 fewer points than he had in 2023, and it would have been his worst full-season total since his second year in the league (2017, 245.2 points).

Tyreek Hill 2025 Fantasy Outlook

The Dolphins pass attack will remain mostly the same compared to last season, with Nick Westbook-Ikhine being the only notable addition. So, let’s take a look at what we find in Hill’s disappointing 2024 stats compared to his previous, more prominent 2023 numbers.

His yards per catch average dropped from 15.1 to 11.8, and his receiving extra points added went from +81.3 down to +19.9 based on NextGen Stats. Hill was also less effective after the catch, recording just 306 such yards last season. That total was 690 yards in 2023. He also saw his target share drop from 37.8 to 24.1, which was due in part to the emergence of Jonnu Smith. He also experienced a drop of more than two full yards per route run in 2024.

Hill, now entering his age-31 season, was clearly utilized less often last season … he went from a 31.1 percent target share in 2023 to just 21.7 percent in 2024. So, when you couple fewer targets and being less effective when he was targeted, and you have some big-time concerns for Hill’s fantasy output … and whether his time as an elite receiver are over.

Tyreek Hill ADP: Draft Or Pass

Hill’s struggles a season ago, coupled with the fact that he’s not getting any younger, have resulted in his draft stock falling based on ADP data. A potential top-five overall pick last year, he is now the WR17 (35.9) on the NFFC website. Hill is coming off the board higher on Fantasy Underdog, however, with an ADP of 27.8 (WR15). Regardless, it’s obvious that Hill has gone from a set-it-and-forget-it draft pick to someone who now comes with some risk.

Verdict

It’s hard to look past Hill’s declining stats on the field from a season ago, and he’s also not exactly been the picture of good sense off it. In fact, I’d much rather have an ascending wide receiver like Drake London, Garrett Wilson or Jaxon Smith-Njigba ahead of Hill among players in his same ADP range. I’d take a chance on him if he fell into the late second or early third round, but I’ll be more likely to pass on Hill as a top-24 overall draft pick.