Are Lamar Jackson and Saquon Barkley Destined To Disappoint Fantasy Managers After Magical Seasons?

The 2024 NFL campaign saw a few players have what I like to call “magical seasons” in fantasy football. And, if you’ve followed me during my 20-plus years in the fantasy sports industry, you’ve no doubt heard me proclaim, “Beware the Magical Season!” It’s basically a regression warning, because it’s often difficult for a player to duplicate (or even come close) to a massive statistical year again.

So, which players should fantasy managers be worried about in 2025 drafts?

Let’s start with the quarterback position and Lamar Jackson. You might not know it, but he is coming off the best fantasy season of all time among field generals. His 430.4 fantasy points are 13 more than the previous best single-season total (417.4) set by Patrick Mahomes in 2022.

In the Super Bowl era, Jackson is one of just four quarterbacks to score 400 points.

As you’ll see from the chart below, all of those quarterbacks saw a drop in points the following season. That includes Jackson himself … he dropped 82.9 points the year after scoring 415.7 points in 2019. What’s more, Josh Allen is the lone signal-caller who didn’t see a decline of at least 82.9 points … he scored similar totals in both 2021 and 2022.

At running back, I have already detailed my concerns about Saquon Barkley. He’s the ninth running back in NFL history to rush for at least 2,000 yards in a single season, and chances are he’ll be the ninth running back to see his fantasy point totals decline.

As you can see below, the previous eight 2,000-yard rushers saw a decline of at least 99.4 points in the following year. Barkley also has to contend with the Curse of 370, the Curse of 400 Carries and for those of you who believe in curses and jinxes, he’s also on the cover of Madden.

Barkley isn’t the only running back coming off a magical season.

Jahmyr Gibbs, who scored 20 total touchdowns last season, is one of only 25 running backs in the Super Bowl era to hit that mark. That’s a big sample size, so I’m taking the runners who hit that mark since 2010 (15 years).

That list includes nine of the 25 running backs, six of which occurred since 2020. As the chart below shows, following a season with at least 20 touchdowns is tough to repeat.

None of these running backs scored more than 18 touchdowns the following year, and just two (Gurley, Ekeler) scored more than nine times. What’s more, Ekeler is the lone back to score more fantasy points. Among the other seven, the smallest decline in points is 129.1 (McCoy). Two backs, McCaffrey and Johnson, got hurt and missed most of the year after their 20-touchdown campaigns. Taylor also missed a few games in the 2022 season.

Next up is the wide receivers and Ja’Marr Chase, who scored 403 points last season. He was also just the eighth receiver in the Super Bowl era to post 17-plus touchdown catches. As you’ll see from the chart below, every wideout to hit that mark saw a decline of no fewer than four touchdowns the following season.

The good news is that all but three receivers scored double-digit touchdowns the season after posting 17-plus touchdowns. The bad news is that the average decline in touchdowns is eight. I didn’t include Sharpe in that research, since he was forced to retire and didn’t play in the 1995 season.

Finally, let’s look at what is also a magical season, this one from Brock Bowers.

He went off as a rookie, setting a new NFL record for catches for a first-year player with 112. That is also the third-most catches from any tight end in the Super Bowl era. Bowers also joins a group of 10 tight ends who have caught 100 passes in a single season, again dating back to 1966.

This trend doesn’t include Bowers exclusively either at the position, as Trey McBride also caught 111 passes during what can also be called a “magical season” in the desert. And, as is the case with most other examples, a decline in statistics is almost always imminent.

None of these 10 tight ends had more than 93 catches after a 100-plus catch season, and the average decline in receptions is 34.1. In terms of fantasy points, all 10 experienced a drop of at least 25.8 points. The average drop in fantasy points is a frightening 96.4 points.  

These aren’t the lone examples of magical seasons from 2024, either.

Bo Nix’s 316.2 fantasy points is the fifth-most for a rookie quarterback in the Super Bowl era. Malik Nabers set a new rookie record for receptions by a wide receiver (109), which had been set in the previous season by Puka Nacua (105).  Nabers is also just the fourth rookie wide receiver to post 100 or more catches. Much of this has to do with the extra 17th game in the current NFL season, but it’s still notable for fantasy fans ahead of 2025 drafts.

Regression is real, and magical seasons are rarely duplicated.